Futuring with design... and how it leads to designing the future with five traits
I was lost.
We were asked to put together a strategic programme for the leaders in our company, and the theme was futures thinking, which was my boss's passion topic. This led to his rambling about creating an engine with hypothetical future scenarios, with each decision leading to another set of unique paths, until a world was conceived based on the choices a person made.
At that time, I couldn't help but glance over at my two other colleagues. One was a researcher, while the other was a fellow designer. They, just like me, were shell-shocked. As my boss continued to sketch out the solution on a whiteboard, I was mindful that we had to get the solution ready within one month. And there wasn't any budget allocated for it.
The Challenge of Futures Thinking
People tend to walk on pavements to get from one place to another because someone else has tried it before. Cars drive on planned roads, and even planes fly along known flight paths.
This isn't about making a desire path, taking convenient shortcuts, or walking on trampled dirt paths. This is a situation where you are the pioneer in making the first step into the wilderness.
Prolific author of two New York Times bestsellers, Psychology of Money and Same as Ever, Morgan Housel admits that accuracy isn't what people want, but certainty of a situation. To the extent that we prefer to be ignorant than to accept a world filled with probabilities and unknowns.
This was the idea behind my story above. We desire a virtual engine that could miraculously predict the future. Unfortunately, even the weakest signal, undetected by anyone, could result in echos that leave a significant impact. The complexity of being human is partly responsible for the turn of future events, but our ability to continuously re-align our initial assumptions also needs to be in place.
Designers' Unique Traits and Industry Challenges
Designers are human beings too. We aren't divine beings that know it all. The difference with designers is based on unique traits. For example, our ability to feel and be self-aware makes us better observers. That same feeling can extend to creating visually pleasing artefacts, or tactile objects, where we imagine an alternate reality.
Despite our abilities, the problem isn't a lack of vision. It is due to how industries perceive design outputs: quick wins, fast following of what competitors are doing, and what clients want.
As a result, designers cater to what's happening now. Even journey maps are evidence of such thinking. Consider the customer actions that are seen on the map. They are most likely what's known, measured, and predicted, just like concrete pavement on the sidewalk. What exists in front of us limits our horizons. As a result, we create solutions closer to the present time.
Design Thinking vs. Futures Thinking
In such a scenario, design thinking, or UX/UI, shines when the experiences felt immediately by users can be quickly addressed. The feedback generated is useful for immediate iteration, and everyone is happy.
Or are they?
Because some problems are larger or more systemic, such as climate change and geopolitical affairs, it will take years before any observable design outcome can be fully realised. And when that happens, design thinking comes into question because abductive reasoning based on what is known to the designer is not enough.
There needs to be a different approach, and the answer lies in futures thinking
Drawing Inspiration from Innovators
Back to the future
Marty Mcfly and Dr. Emmett Brown were two of the few pioneers who showed how to form a new path. By sitting on their state-of-the-art DeLorean DMC-12, they managed to go back (or forward) to the future to see a very different world. Flying cars. Hoverboards. Fax machine rules. These were gizmos that have critics smirking at the sillyness of futurecasting. But look deeper, and you will see more accurate predictions: personal drones, digital payments, biometrics, Zoom meetings, and Vision Pro.
And if Mcfly and Brown were fictional characters, then young Bill Gates would make this prophetic statement:
"We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction."
Microsoft
Satya Nadella is Bill Gate's proof not to underestimate change. Within the 10 years since he took up the CEO role on February 4, 2014, he has turned Microsoft into one of the most valuable companies in the world. However, it was also his imagination to go beyond what Microsoft did that made the company so successful. Here is a list of the things that he predicted:
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Copilot: Nadella predicted that artificial intelligence (AI) would be a key driver of productivity and creativity for people and businesses. He launched Copilot, an AI-powered companion that helps users with writing, coding, designing, researching, and learning.
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Cloud: Nadella predicted that cloud computing would be a major source of revenue and growth for Microsoft. He invested heavily in Azure, Microsoft’s cloud platform, and acquired LinkedIn, GitHub, and Nuance to strengthen Microsoft’s cloud capabilities and reach more customers
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Metaverse: Nadella predicted that the metaverse would be a transformative trend for business and society. He announced Microsoft Mesh, a platform that enables immersive and holographic experiences using mixed-reality devices like HoloLens. Way earlier than Apple.
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Gaming: Nadella predicted that gaming would be a strategic opportunity for Microsoft to engage with a large and diverse audience. He supported the development and launch of the Xbox Series X and S, the next-generation consoles that offer high performance and compatibility. He also acquired Bethesda, Activision Blizzard, and other gaming studios to expand Microsoft’s gaming portfolio and content.
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Social impact: Nadella predicted that Microsoft would have a positive impact on the world by addressing social and environmental challenges. He committed Microsoft to be carbon-negative by 2030 and to remove all its historical emissions by 2050. He also launched AI for Good, a $165 million initiative that supports projects that use AI to solve humanitarian, accessibility, and environmental issues.
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Hybrid work: Nadella predicted that the future of work would be hybrid, meaning that people would have the flexibility and choice to work from anywhere, anytime, and on any device. He launched Microsoft Viva, a platform that integrates with Microsoft 365 and Teams, to help employees and organisations thrive in the hybrid work environment. Microsoft Viva provides tools and insights for learning, wellbeing, engagement, and productivity.
Generated by OpenAI; editted by Yeo.
Starbucks
From personal computers to coffee, Starbucks is another Seattle company that recently went into futures thinking. Their founder and third-time returning CEO, Howard Schultz, mentioned these words:
“The future of Starbucks, in my view, has to be something like this. We have to reimagine, most importantly, the experience for our partners. And what does that mean? It's not just wages. It's the environment in the store. It's the joy. It's the sense of community and its fulfilment.
We have to reimagine the customer experience. The third-place environment, which has been such a foundational aspect of the Starbucks experience all over the world, is now somewhat confined by the fact that people are not using our stores the same way. And so all those stores that we have that have big lobbies may not be as relevant tomorrow as they have been in the past.
We have to redefine and redesign our store experience.”
Starbucks is another Seattle company that recently went into futures thinking in 2022.
Since then, Schultz's reinvention plan continues in the plans of Starbuck's new CEO, Laxman Narasimhan. Overall financial performance in Q4 2023 showed an increase in net sales by 11.4% to $9.37 billion. The company’s same-store sales rose 8% and there was a 3% increase in customer traffic to its cafes, outperforming analysts’ expectations of the coffee giant. While there is still a long runway for their plan, future thinking works when used effectively.
Imagining a Screenless Future
What if we, as designers, participate in futures thinking? The thought may sound farfetched, but consider how a shift in strategic focus based on a long-term vision can change the trajectory of your designs.
What if there is a world without screens? We may deny such a scenario, but the mobile screens that we know are evolving in dimensions, specs, and relevance. When the screen becomes smaller, the diversity of design components reduces. When machine interaction becomes hyper-natural, we may visualise ideas and hear notes without any borders.
Futuring design with 5 traits
In such a future world, a new experience will exist. How we then work backwards to the present is what matters. For those who follow speculative design closely, there are many different methods, such as the cone of possibilities, design fiction, and the futures wheel.
Rather than listing down the steps to using these methods, which are easily available, I felt it was more meaningful to share the traits needed to create a new pavement. Through the earlier walk with my boss, these were 5 traits that I discovered as we turned an abstract idea into a lasting programme.
1. Prudence
Prudence is an underrated trait that creative individuals often overlook. The Cambridge Dictionary states its definition as "behaviour that is careful and avoids risks," which understandably leads many creative people away from this mindset.
That may be the case for an ideal world, but reality coerces innovators to understand the laws, constraints, and boundaries of what can possibly be done.
Even legendary designer Charles Eames acknowledges the following in his designs:
"I don’t remember ever being forced to accept compromises, but I have willingly accepted constraints.”
And the earlier you take stock of the constraints that you are facing, the better it is to know how you can work further.
Understand the environment around you and what can or cannot be done.
Even if the signals are weak, they may offer nuance—a subtle difference in establishing facts and meaning.
Collecting nuances or weak signals may eventually lead you to a few plausible scenarios to work with.
By taking stock and collecting, you have already de-risked your situation. You avoided the definitive linear thinking of concluding that there is only one outcome.
After composing myself, I decided to call any available expert that could understand our situation and offer advice. Thankfully, my brother was in the field of engine programming. Within an hour, we concluded that creating an algorithm in a non-existent virtual environment within a short time frame was not feasible. However, through the conversation, I gained better clarity on the context, requirements, and limitations needed to still produce a working solution.
Knowing that the virtual engine could not be ready in time for our first review, I had prepared a very different prototype. Since the result was based on the varied selections of users, I decided to work on a 2x2 grid of likelihood and importance for a possible trend. The complexity thus lies in the discussions made by a table of participants, such that they will collectively derive what the probable future is from a deck of trend cards.
The risk was whether an analogue board game would triumph over a digital solution.
2. Courage
Taking a leap of faith is usually what's needed to create new trails. For the explorer, the unknown of what lies ahead is obvious. The chances of failure are high, and the stakes are high. Often, designers face this familiar feeling when it comes to proposing a new solution. The feeling worsens when nothing alike has been done before.
Courage is not a question of what, but a question of when. Dr. Brene Brown says it best:
"Today I will choose courage over comfort. I can’t make any promises for tomorrow, but today I will choose to be brave.”
I prepared myself for my boss to shoot me down with a completely different solution. Instead, we went ahead to build upon the idea, adding more dynamics to the gameplay so as to generate more discussions around a table setting.
The game was on, and we were braving future thinking with design.
From this point, the small team of three banded together to produce the board game at speed. Our researcher dug deep to match aspirational trends with credible examples. My fellow designer went on to provide the artwork for the collection. And I was doing everything in between. Our boss occasionally hovered around us and spun a few scenarios for our researcher to piece together.
3. Imagination
Future thinking is about breaking illusory boundaries. After the earlier gathering of constraints and information, now is the time to question the norms. Also, let's also recognise that time is also a self-limiting boundary that diminishes future potential.
One small mechanism we design into each trend is by asking ourselves what is an extrapolation, or 10x, the magnitude of a given future.
Let's take interfaces as an example.
- Mild prediction: mixed reality achieved with the use of headgear in factories and at home.
- 10x prediction: Interfaces go beyond conventional devices, as every surface can now be considered interactable.
Funny enough, the tension between the two sets of statements is what helps make our imagination more tangible because a range of possibilities can be made in between the two extremes.
When there's a degree of malleability in future thinking, the dynamism of scenarios usually follows.
4. Unity
Gandalf in The Rings of Power said this phrase:
"Alone, it’s just a journey. Now adventures... They must be shared."
You will see this in the earlier examples of Microsoft and Starbucks of how leaders rally their people to pave the future and make it theirs to own.
Schultz's reinvention plan involves every employee reimagining the space, product, service, and digital layer of the company. Likewise for Nadella, any of his six predictions could turn into needle-moving solutions aligned to the times only because of the teams supporting the vision.
Future thinking requires a shared vision for the same adventure. Only then will it be worth pursuing as a path gets trampled more frequently to become a desired trail.
When 50 of the futurecasting board games were finally ready, our team, along with others from the department, got ourselves ready to act as facilitators. Through the discussions that each table of leaders had, the facilitators will consolidate and further prompt the table to agree on the top trends of their future world. These results were later aggregated for the entire company so that, ultimately, a shared vision with the top trends could be determined at the company's level.
Such a ground-up initiative is powerful because each individual now owns a part of their expertise and knowledge of where the future lies.
5. Verifiability
Six years have passed since the creation of the board game, but news about what it has done—and possibly will continue to do—reverberates within the company that I left. But what's more important is the constant verification of the trend to address two things:
- To what extent has the same trend evolved over time?
- How close are we to reaching the mark?
Some of the trends may have completely fizzled away. Others are yet to be realised. But more of the trends that we initially identified are starting to play out. As I revisited and updated the trends in 2023, I now had a large language model (LLM) to verify, update, and generate trends accordingly.
And doing this again was a great feeling because this intervention in designing the future incidentally became
the futuring with design.
Journeys are paths that have foundations laid before them. But when there isn't a path in front of us, just as we see others like Microsoft, Starbucks, and the duo from Back to the Future, we too can create future journeys as adventures, with prudence, courage, imagination, unity, and verifiability as our guiding traits towards futuring our designs.
References
Framke, C. (2015, October 21). Back to the Future Day: the movie’s 2015 predictions and the hoax, explained. Vox. https://www.vox.com/2015/10/21/9581539/back-to-the-future-day-2015-predictions-hoax
Housel, M. (2023). Same as Ever. Harriman House Limited.
Liv Buur, S. (2020, January 9). Vitra | What Is Your Definition of “Design,” Monsieur Eames? Www.vitra.com. https://www.vitra.com/en-ie/magazine/details/what-is-your-definition-of-design-monsieur-eames
Lucas, A. (2023, November 2). Starbucks stock rises 10% as U.S. customers buy into pricier drinks. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/02/starbucks-sbux-earnings-q4-2023.html
Starbucks. (2022, April 5). Howard Schultz’s vision for Starbucks future. www.youtube.com. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOgYMvNX6zM&t=4s
Stolzoff, S. (2019, February 1). How do you turn around the culture of a 130,000-person company? Ask Satya Nadella. Quartz. https://qz.com/work/1539071/how-microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-rebuilt-the-company-culture
